Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $541,493$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{565,005.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 108.7)}}\) (asimptote \(565,005.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,481$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(827 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,533.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 144.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,533.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $140,993$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $388,855$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{374,773.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 97.4)}}\) (asimptote \(374,773.2\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,546$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(485 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,731.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 99.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,731.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,869$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,407,354$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,159,398.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,159,398.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109,888$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,879.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117,879.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $546,220$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,019$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,387.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(131,387.2\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,172$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(77.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,999.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,999.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,224$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $102,941$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,483.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(128,483.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,105$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(910 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,823.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 75.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,823.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,653$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $489,122$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,154,147.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 162.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,154,147.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,619$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(144 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,374.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 142.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,374.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $161,180$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $305,966$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{597,767.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 154.7)}}\) (asimptote \(597,767.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,048$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(59.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,387$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,216$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(6.03 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,889.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 165.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,889.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $54$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(0.595 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 160.1)}}\) (asimptote \(147.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $966$ on 2020-08-18
